The commercial print industry has navigated rough water before. We came through COVID and the Great Recession, and we’ll come through this. Between tariffs and inflation, the paper market is in a state of volatility again. There are practical steps you can take to fend off the worst effects to your business.
What’s happening at the Mill level
Domestic mills are dealing with higher operating costs driven by freight and energy pricing. Many are announcing price increases, and some are on allocation, which limits your flexibility when you need to source quickly. Mills are also prioritizing higher-margin grades, which means reduced capacity for certain commodity stocks, leading to reduced availability. Add offshore mills contending with elevated bunker fuel rates, and you have a global supply chain that could be tighter and less predictable than it’s been in some time.
Geopolitically, the environment remains fluid. Oil prices may be easing at the moment, but that kind of relief can be short-lived. The honest read is that conditions can shift again quickly, and planning as if they won’t is a risk few buyers can afford.
For buyers, this means increased pricing variability, longer lead times, inconsistent availability, and quotes that carry shorter validity windows.
Practical steps to take now
- Forecast more strategically and start the conversation earlier. If you know a job is coming in 60 or 90 days, don’t wait to talk to your supplier about stock options. That lead time is your leverage.
- Pre-qualify alternative stocks and brands before you need them. Having an approved backup means a supply hiccup doesn’t become a production crisis. Work closely with your supplier partners since they’re seeing the market in real time and can flag options or grade substitutions you might not have considered.
- Maintain regular communication, not just when you’re placing an order. Suppliers who hear from you consistently are better positioned to advocate for your needs when things are tight.
- Build in flexibility wherever you can. Rigid programs are harder to protect in a volatile market.
The Conversation with Your Customers
Your clients need to hear from you before problems appear. Proactive, transparent communication about pricing and lead times builds trust. It also positions you as a knowledgeable resource, not the vendor who delivers bad news at the last minute. When customers understand the environment, they’re far more likely to work with you on solutions. That’s a real competitive advantage right now.
The bigger picture
Volatility in the paper market isn’t a temporary blip we’re waiting to resolve. It’s the new normal, shaped by fuel costs, tariffs, geopolitical shifts, and structural changes in how mills operate. Planning, flexibility, and open communication will protect your business.
We’re all navigating this together.
By Damien Bradley, KellySpicers, damien.bradley@kellyspicers.com
